It is one of the key considerations for any investment – the balance between risk and reward. Reward can be thought of as the net gain, or increase in equity. It is often the profit generated from the business activity, or comes from increasing the value of assets by more than the increase in liabilities. Risk does show up a little – Insurance costs on the P&L to cover risks to assets, and Provisions for things like bad debt on the Balance Sheet.
The challenge is planning for new business development. New business often looks fantastic, because it creates new revenue and profits, often without significant changes to the equity of the business. There will probably be a capital cost, but as long as the profit is greater than the “cost of capital”, the new business will pay for itself and improve the return on equity. Clever maths like Net Present Value is usually just a way of packaging the first half of the story – budget justification. Deciding just on these numbers is like flying a plane just with instruments – you know the altitude above sea level, but you don’t know where the ground is. It all sounds very convincing, but it doesn’t account for the risks being taken.
This plays out at any level from a new customer with special needs, developing new products or services, to a business partner openning up a new territory, or even the potential acquisition of another business.
The other half of the story is the Risk/Reward analysis, or its close relatives: Cost/Benefit and Due Diligence. These techniques are trying to address the same question: should I decide today that taking these risks are worth the future rewards?
I’ll focus on Cost/Benefit analysis because it is often misused. It can ignore the effects of risk if it focuses on tangible costs. It changes the question to: should I decide today that incurring these costs will be worth the future benefits? It does have the advantage of describing things in real numbers, but needs to be carefully implemented if risk is to truly be assessed.
Cost related risks may show up as a contingency allowance. It represents the likely impact from all the risks. A good example is a construction project, where experience can be a guide to setting a realistic allowance.
Benefit related risks usually show up as a range of possible outcomes (high, mid, low). A good example is a marketing campaign where the effectiveness of message, or the appeal of the offer, can’t be known for certain.
As a general rule, its a good idea make costing allowances for the things that can be controlled, and benefit projection allowances for the things that can’t.
Lastly there are many ways to minimise or mitigate risks. There are plenty of strategies that have the effect of insuring, hedging, or deferring the risk to make it more manageable. This is a topic for another day!